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Journal articles

Authors in bold are members of the lab.



[54] Boonman CC, Serra-Diaz JM, Hoeks S, Guo WY, Enquist BJ, Maitner B, … & Svenning, J. C. (2024). More than 17,000 tree species are at risk from rapid global change. Nature Communications, 15(1), 166. DOI:


[53] Mo, L., Zohner, C. M., Reich, P. B., Liang, J., De Miguel, S., Nabuurs, G. J., … Serra-Diaz JM, … & Ortiz-Malavasi, E. (2023). Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential. Nature, 1-10. DOI:

[52] Guo WY, Serra-Diaz JM, Eiserhardt WL, Maitner BS, Merow C, Violle C, … & Svenning, J. C. (2023). Climate change and land use threaten global hotspots of phylogenetic endemism for trees. Nature Communications14(1), 6950. DOI:

[51] Sanchez-Martinez P, Mencuccini M, García-Valdés R, Hammond W M, Serra-Diaz JM, Guo WY, … & Martínez-Vilalta J (2023). Increased hydraulic risk in assemblages of woody plant species predicts spatial patterns of drought-induced mortality. Nature Ecology & Evolution7(10), 1620-1632. DOI:

[51] Shanafelt DW, Serra-Diaz JM, & Bocquého G (2023). Measuring uncertainty in ecosystem service correlations as a function of sample size. Ecosystem Services63, 101546. DOI:

[50] Delavaux CS, Crowther TW, Zohner CM, Robmann NM, Lauber T, Van den Hoogen J, … Serra-Diaz JM, … & Parthasarathy, N. (2023). Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions. Nature621(7980), 773-781. DOI:

[49] Guo WY, Serra-Diaz, JM, …, Svenning JC. Paleoclimate and current climate collectively shape the phylogenetic and functional diversity of trees worldwide. DOI:

[48] Hordijk I, Maynard DS, Hart SP, Lidong M, ter Steege H, Liang J, … Serra-Diaz JM… & Pfautsch S (2023). Evenness mediates the global relationship between forest productivity and richnessJournal of Ecology.

[47] Merow C, Serra-Diaz JM, Enquist BJ & Wilson AM. (2023) AI chatbots can boost scientific coding. Nature Ecology and Evolution.

[46] Xu WB, Guo WY, Serra-Diaz JM, Schrodt F, Eiserhardt WL, Enquist BJ, … & Ordonez A. (2023). Global beta-diversity of angiosperm trees is shaped by Quaternary climate changeScience advances9(14), eadd8553.

[45] Mahaut L, Choler P, Denelle P, Garnier E, Thuiller W, Kattge J, … Serra-Diaz JM … & Violle, C. (2023). Trade‐offs and synergies between ecosystem productivity and stability in temperate grasslandsGlobal Ecology and Biogeography, 32(4), 561-572.

[44] Borderieux J, Gégout JC, Serra‐Diaz JM (2023) High landscape‐scale forest cover favours cold‐adapted plant communities in agriculture–forest mosaics. Global Ecology and Biogeography.

[43] Liang Y, Gustafson EJ, He HS, Serra‐Diaz JM, Duveneck MJ, & Thompson JR. What is the role of disturbance in catalyzing spatial shifts in forest composition and tree species biomass under climate change? Global Change Biology. in press doi:10.1111/gcb.16517


[42] Liang J, Gamarra JGP, Picard N, … Serra-Diaz JM …. Cang H. Co-limitation towards lower latitudes shapes global forest diversity gradientsNature Ecology and Evolution, 6, 1423–1437.

[41] Guo WY, Serra-Diaz JM, Schrodt F, Eiserhardt WL, Maitner BS, Merow C., … & Svenning JC (2022). High exposure of global tree diversity to human pressureProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences119(25), e2026733119. DOI

[40] Gaisberger, H., Fremout, T., Kettle, C. J., Vinceti, B., Kemalasari, D., Kanchanarak, T., …, Serra-Diaz JM, … & Jalonen, R. (2022). Tropical and subtropical Asia’s valued tree species under threat. Conservation Biology, 36(3), e13873. DOI

[39] Feng X., Enquist BJ, Park DS, Boyle B, Breshears DD, Gallagher R., … Serra-Diaz JM … & López-Hoffman L (2022). A review of the heterogeneous landscape of biodiversity databases: opportunities and challenges for a synthesized biodiversity knowledge base. Global Ecology and Biogeography. Accepted.

[38] Morente-López J, Kass JM, Lara-Romero C, Serra-Diaz JM, Soto-Correa JC, Anderson RP, Iriondo JM (2022) Ecological niche models as hypothesis generators of functional genetic differentiation and potential local adaptation in a Mediterranean alpine ecosystem. Global Change Biology. DOI

[37] Zhang M, Keenan TF, Luo X, Serra-Diaz JM, Li W, King T, … , Gong P. (2022). Elevated CO2 moderates the impact of climate change on future bamboo distribution in Madagascar. Science of The Total Environment810, 152235. DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152235

[36] Gatti RC, Reich PB, Gamarra JG, Crowther T, Hui C, Morera A, … Serra-Diaz JM, … Liang, J. (2022). The number of tree species on Earth. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(6). DOI 10.1073/pnas.2115329119

[35] Wang WT, Guo WY, Jarvie S, Serra-Diaz JM, Svenning JC (2022). Anthropogenic climate change increases vulnerability of Magnolia species more in Asia than in the Americas. Biological Conservation, 265, 109425. DOI 10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109425


[34] Lembrechts JJ, Van den Hoogen J, Aalto J, Ashcroft MB, De Frenne P, Kemppinen J, … Serra-Diaz JM, Hik DS (2021). Global maps of soil temperatureGlobal change biology. DOI 10.1111/gcb.16060

[33] Pérez Navarro MA, Serra-Diaz JM, Svenning JC, Esteve-Selma MA, Hernandez-Bastida J, Lloret F. Extreme drought reduces climatic disequilibrium in dryland plant communities. Oikos 130(5), 680-690. DOI 10.1111/oik.0788

[32] Swanson HA, Svenning JC, Saxena A, Muscarella R, Franklin J, Garbelotto M, Mathews AS, Saito O, Schnitzler AE, Serra-Diaz JM, Tsing AL (2020). History as grounds for interdisciplinarity: promoting sustainable woodlands via an integrative ecological an socio-cultural historical perspective.  OneEarth  4(2), 226-237. DOI. 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.01.006


[31] Alavi SJ, Ahmadi K, Dormann CF, Serra-Diaz, JM, Nouri Z (2020). Assessing the dominant height of oriental beech (Fagus orientalis L.) in relation to edaphic and physiographic variables in the Hyrcanian Forests of IranBASE Biotechnol. Agron. Soc. Environ. 24(4), 262-273

[30] Zurell D, Franklin J, König C, Bouchet PJ, Dormann CF, Elith J, Fandos G, Feng X, Guillera-Arroita G, Guisan A, Lahoz‐Monfort JJ, Leitão PJ, Park DS, Towsend Peterson A, Rapacciuolo G, Schmartz DR, Schröder B, Serra-Diaz JM, Thuiller W, Yates KL, Zimmeramann N, Merow C. A standard protocol for reporting species distribution models. Ecography.

[29] Ahmadi K, Jalil Alavi S, Zahedi Amiri G, Mohsen Hosseini S, Serra‐Diaz JM, Svenning JC. The potential impact of future climate on the distribution of European yew (Taxus baccata L.) in the Hyrcanian Forest region (Iran). Journal of Biometeorology. DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-01922-z

[28] Maxwell CJ, Serra‐Diaz JM, Scheller RM, Thompson JR.(2020) Co‐designed management scenarios shape the responses of seasonally‐dry forests to changing climate and fire regimes. Journal of Applied Ecology 57: 1328-1340. DOI:

[27] Ahmadi K, Jalil Alavi S, Zahedi Amiri G, Mohsen Hosseini S, Serra‐Diaz JM, Svenning JC. (2020). Patterns of density and structure of natural populations of Taxus baccata in the Hyrcanian forests of Iran. Nordic Journal of Botany, 38(3). DOI:


[26] Enquist BJ, … Serra-Diaz JM, …, McGill BJ.The commonness of rarity: Global and future distribution of rarity across land plants. Science Advances, 5 (11), eaaz0414.

[25] Steidinger BS, Crowther TW, Liang J, Van Nuland ME, Werner GD, Reich PB, Nabuurs G, de-Miguel S, Zhou M, Picard N, Herault B & GFBi Consortium. (2019). Climatic controls of decomposition drive the global biogeography of forest-tree symbioses. Nature: 569(7756), 404- 408.

[24] Davis FW, Synes NW, Fircker GA, McCullough IM, Serra-Diaz JM, Franklin J, Flint
AL. (2019). LiDAR-derived topography and forest structure predict fine/scale variation in daily surface temperatures in oak savanna and conifer forest landscapes. Agricultural and forest Meteorology, 269, 192-202.

[23] Fricker GA, Synes NW, Serra-Diaz JM, North MP, Davis FW, Franklin J. (2019). More than climate? Predictors of tree canopy height vary with scale in complex terrain, Sierra Nevada, CA (USA). Forest Ecology and Management, 434, 142-153.

[22] Serra-Diaz J.M. and Franklin, J. (2019). What’s hot in conservation biogeography in a changing climate? Going beyond species range dynamics. Diversity and Distributions, 25(4), pp.492-498.


[21] Serra-Diaz JM., Maxwell C, Lucash MS, Scheller RM, Laflower DM, Miller AD, Tepley AJ, Epstein HE, Anderson-Teixeira KJ, Thompson JR. (2018). Disequilibrium of fire-prone forests sets the stage for a rapid decline in conifer dominance during the 21st century. Scientific reports 8. TOP 100 ECOLOGY 2018 in Scientific reports .

[20] Pérez-Navarro MA, Sapes G, Batllori E, Serra-Diaz JM, Esteve MA, Lloret F. (2018). Climatic Suitability Derived from Species Distribution Models Captures Community Responses to an Extreme Drought Episode. Ecosystems, 1-14.

[19] Liang Y, Duveneck MJ, Gustafson EJ, Serra‐Diaz JM, Thompson JR. (2018). How disturbance, competition, and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change. Global change biology: e335-e351.


[18] Serra-Diaz JM, Enquist BJ, Maitner B, Merow C, Svenning JC. (2017). Big data of tree species distributions: how big and how good? Forest Ecosystems, 4(1), 30.

[17] Cuervo-Robayo A, Escobar LE, Osorio-Olvera LE, Nori J, Varela S, Martinez-Meyer E, Velasquez-Tibata J, Rodriuez-Soto C, Munguia M, Castaneda-Alvarez NP, Lira-Noriega A, Soley-Guardia M, Serra-Diaz JM, Peterson T. (2017). Introduccion a los análisis espaciales con énfasis en modelos de nicho ecológico. Biodiversity Informatics, 12, 45-57.

[16] Sapes G, Serra-Diaz JM, LLoret F. (2017). Species climatic niche explains drought- induced die-off in a Mediterranean woody community. Ecosphere 8(5):e01833. e0183310.1002/ecs2.1833.


[15] Davis FW, Sweet LC, Serra-Diaz JM, Franklin J, McCullough I, Flint AL, Flint LE, Dingman JR, Regan HM, Syphard AD, Hannah L , Redmond K, Moritz MA. (2016). Shrinking windows of opportunity for oak seedling establishment in southern California mountains. Ecosphere, 7, 11.

[14] Serra-Diaz JM, Franklin J, Sweet LC, McCullough IM, Syphard AD, Regan HM, Flint LE, Flint AL, Dingman JR., Moritz M, Redmon K, Hannah L, Davis FW (2016). Averaged 30 year climate change projections mask opportunities for species establishment. Ecography, 39, 844– 845.

[13] Franklin J, Serra-Diaz JM, Syphard AD, Regan HM. (2016). Big data for forecasting global change impacts on plant communities. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 25(1), 6-17.

[12] Franklin J, Serra-Diaz JM, Syphard AD, Regan HM. (2016). Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics. PNAS, 113, 3725–3734.

[11] McCullough IM, Davis FW, Dingman JR, Flint LE, Flint AL, Serra-Diaz JM, Syphard AD, Moritz MA, Hannah L, Franklin J. (2016). High and dry: high elevations disproportionately exposed to regional climate change in Mediterranean-climate landscapes. Landscape Ecology, 31, 1063-1075.

[10] Serra-Diaz JM, Franklin J, Dillon WW, Syphard AD, Davis FW, Meentemeyer RK. (2016). California forests show both early indications of range shifts and local persistence under climate change that differ among tree species. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 25, 164-175.


[9] Serra-Diaz JM, Scheller RM, Syphard AD, Franklin J. (2015). Disturbance and climate microrefugia mediate tree range shifts during climate change. Landscape Ecology, 30, 1039- 1053.


[8] Serra-Diaz JM, Franklin J, Ninyerola M, Davis FW, Syphard AD, Regan HM, Ikegami M.(2014).Bioclimatic velocity:the pace of species exposure to climate change. Diversity and distributions, 20, 169-180.


[7] Lloret F, Martínez-Vilalta J, Serra-Díaz JM, Ninyerola M. (2013). Relationship between projected changes in climatic suitability and demographic and functional traits of forest tree species in Spain. Climatic change, 120, 449-462.

[6] Serra-Diaz JM, Keenan T, Ninyerola M, Sabaté S, Gracia C, Lloret F. (2013). Geographical patterns of congruence and incongruence between correlative species distribution models and process-based ecophysiological growth model. Journal of Biogeography, 40, 1928-1938.


[5] Serra-Diaz JM, Ninyerola M, Lloret F (2012). Coexistence of Abies alba (Mill.) – Fagus sylvatica (L.) and climate change impact in the Iberian Peninsula: a climatic-niche perspective approach. FLORA – Plant morphology, Distribution and Functional Ecology, 207, 10-18.

[4] Serra-Diaz JM, Pelachs A, Vera A, Mendizàbal E. (2012). Bridging the gap between landscape theory and management needs: a case study in the High Pyrenees Natural Park. Environmental Engineering and Management, 11, 1179-1192.

[3] Barrachina M, Serra-Diaz JM, Tulla AF, Cristobal J. (2012). On the link between socio- economic development and landscape changes in two Pyrenean valleys: the true challenge of multifunctionality. Environmental Engineering and Management, 11, 1077-1086.


[2] Keenan T, Serra JM, Lloret F, Ninyerola M, Sabaté S. (2011). Predicting the future of forests in the Mediterranean under climate change, with niche- and process-based models: CO2 matters! Global Change Biology, 17, 565- 579.

[1] Serra JM, Cristobal J, Ninyerola M. (2011). A Classification Procedure for Mapping Topo- climatic Conditions for Strategic Vegetation Planning. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 16, 77-89.


Pèlachs A, Mendizàbal E, Serra J, Soriano JM, Nadal J. (2009) Evaluation of protected natural reserves through GTP model – The case-study of High Pyrenees Natural Park” in Natuurbanization. pp.225-238. Taylor & Francis Group. London, UK.ISBN: 978-0-415- 49000-9. Check it out here

Imbach P, Serra-Diaz JM, Hannah L, Fung E, Hiroyasu EH. (2019). Ch.12 Species and Vegetation Modeling. In: Biodiversity and Climate Change. Ed. Thomas Lovejoy and Lee Hannah. Yale University Press. ISBN: 9780300206111. Check it out here